In response to provocative statements made by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the deployment of two nuclear submarines near Russian borders. He made this known on August 1 via his platform, Truth Social, stating that the move was prompted by Medvedev’s “highly provocative” rhetoric and “in case these insane and incendiary remarks turn out to be more than just words.” Trump added, “Words matter, and they can often have unintended consequences. I hope this won’t be the case.”
Medvedev and the Shadow of the “Dead Hand”
The outburst was sparked by a Telegram message from Medvedev, in which he mockingly advised Trump to watch the post-apocalyptic series The Walking Dead to imagine the consequences of a conflict with Russia — a clear reference to “Perimeter,” the Soviet-era automatic nuclear response system also known as the “Dead Hand.”
Earlier, Trump had called Medvedev a “failed Russian president who still thinks he’s in office.” Known for his increasingly extreme rhetoric, Medvedev once said in 2022 that “punishing a country with one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals is absurd and potentially a threat to humanity.”
It remains unclear whether the U.S. submarines have actually changed positions or whether they are merely nuclear-powered or also carry nuclear warheads. In theory, they don’t need to be repositioned, as their missiles can strike targets thousands of kilometers away. Still, the threat serves as a symbolic maneuver — a familiar feature of American strategic messaging, especially under Trump.
A Failed Ultimatum and the Search for Secondary Targets
According to Le Monde, Trump issued an ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 14, giving him 50 days to halt the war in Ukraine. By July 29, that deadline had been shortened to just 10 days. However, diplomacy has thus far yielded no results. Trump, who had promised to bring peace between Russia and Ukraine, now faces the reality that such efforts remain fruitless.
The U.S. president has mentioned possible sanctions against Russia — though he has expressed doubts about their effectiveness — and hinted at secondary sanctions against countries that are effectively funding Russia by buying its oil and gas, primarily India and China.
Medvedev: “Russia Is Not Iran or Israel”
Medvedev responded on July 28 via X (formerly Twitter), posting in English:
“Trump is playing the game of ultimatums with Russia – 50 days, 10 days… He should remember two things:
- Russia is neither Israel nor even Iran.
- Every new ultimatum is a threat and a step toward war. Not with Ukraine – with his own country. Don’t follow the path of ‘Sleepy Joe.’”
This statement underscores the Kremlin’s view of public ultimatums not as tools for negotiation but as escalatory steps.
The “Madman Theory” and Its Limits
Trump’s approach has been widely described as the “Madman Theory” — intentional unpredictability designed to rattle opponents. He employed it during his first term in office against North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, boasting that his “nuclear button” was “much bigger and more powerful” than Kim’s.
But as The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board points out, “North Korea is not Russia.” The outlet notes that while President Biden has “tolerated too much nuclear blackmail from Russia,” Trump’s tactics may backfire: “The madman theory has its limits.”
Putin’s Indirect Response and Zelensky’s Position
On August 1, for the first time since Trump’s ultimatum, Russian President Vladimir Putin indirectly responded during a meeting near St. Petersburg with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko:
“All disappointments come from inflated expectations. To solve this issue peacefully, we need in-depth discussions, not public statements, but the quiet of a negotiation process.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded shortly after, urging Russia to “go beyond technical-level meetings and declarations” and to engage in “direct talks between leaders.” The two warring nations have recently held three technical meetings in Istanbul.
Bombings Continue
Meanwhile, the fighting on Ukrainian soil persists. On July 31, Russian missiles and drones struck multiple buildings in Kyiv, killing at least 31 people and injuring another 150.
According to an August 1 report by Agence France-Presse, July 2025 saw the highest number of drone attacks launched by Russia since the beginning of the war. Citing data from Kyiv, AFP reports that Moscow used 6,297 long-range drones last month alone — a 16% increase from June and the third consecutive monthly rise.
Trump Shifts from Appeasement to Aggression
Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is expected to visit Moscow soon. This mission could determine whether diplomacy is still viable. Previously known for a softer tone toward Moscow, Trump’s rhetoric has now shifted:
“Russia? I find what they’re doing disgusting,” he said on July 31, in reference to the recent bombardments of Kyiv.
This change in tone, combined with military posturing, suggests Trump is seeking new levers — not only against the Kremlin, but also against its global enablers. His “madman theory” isn’t just theater; it’s a strategic bid to recast the terms of war. Whether it works remains to be seen.
This article was prepared based on materials published by Le Monde. The author does not claim authorship of the original text but presents their interpretation of the content for informational purposes.
The original article can be found at the following link: Le Monde.
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