Since the spring of 2025, obtaining a full picture of Russia’s demographic situation has become nearly impossible. As independent demographer Alexey Raksha points out, “Starting from March 2025, almost all public demographic statistics have been suspended.” The full data is now available only to a narrow circle of state-affiliated experts, marked “for official use only.”
This decision by the Russian authorities continues a trend of restricting access to sensitive information, especially in the context of the prolonged war in Ukraine, which has now entered its fourth year. According to Bloomberg, the state is increasingly controlling the flow of information, particularly regarding military losses and their impact on the population.
President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly named the fight against population decline as a top priority. However, assessing whether any progress has been made is becoming more difficult: the war drags on, and the data is kept hidden. Even in the recent socio-economic report by the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) for the first five months of 2025, the usual section on demography was missing.
Demographic Crisis Deepens
According to data previously published by Rosstat, the number of births in 2024 fell to just 1.22 million people — the lowest level since 1999. At the same time, deaths increased by 3.3%, reaching 1.82 million people. As a result, the natural population decline accelerated by about 20% compared to 2023 — due in large part to the war.
Independent demographer Igor Efremov emphasizes that the authorities’ decision to stop publishing monthly data severely restricts analytical possibilities:
“It’s difficult to say how long the data will be closed off.”
He notes that this kind of practice already existed in the late Soviet period, when demographic statistics were classified in the 1960s–70s due to declining life expectancy. These numbers were only made public again toward the end of the 1980s.
“In the current case, all the unavailable data may be published a year after the end of military operations,” Efremov suggests.
Data Closure: Temporary Measure or New Normal?
Experts are particularly concerned that the suppression of data is not an isolated case. Back in 2020, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, Rosstat stopped publishing operational mortality statistics by cause. After the war began in 2022, the level of detail in mortality reports was gradually reduced, and in May 2025, the agency ceased publication of birth rate data and other core demographic indicators altogether.
The reasons for such strict secrecy are clear. Russia does not officially disclose the scale of its military losses, and estimates vary widely. Western sources put the number of war casualties at around 1 million, while Russian sources offer significantly lower estimates, around 200,000. This creates serious discrepancies in understanding the scale of human loss — and without access to reliable data, it’s impossible to fully evaluate the demographic consequences of the conflict.
As Bloomberg stresses, this situation undermines both governmental and independent planning. Without access to verified information, experts cannot forecast developments in key social and economic sectors — from healthcare needs to labor market trends.
Thus, the suppression of demographic data is not merely a byproduct of war but a deliberate tool — a way to control perceptions both domestically and internationally. And for Russian society, it means one thing: the longer the conflict continues, the deeper the country retreats into an information blackout.
This article was prepared based on materials published by Bloomberg. The author does not claim authorship of the original text but presents their interpretation of the content for informational purposes.
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