Global trade is shifting before our eyes. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and amid growing confrontation among the world’s major powers, new routes have begun to emerge on the global map. One of the most prominent is the Middle Corridor—a transport route from China to Europe that runs through Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey.
For Europe, it is a chance to bypass Russia. For China, a way to diversify logistics. For Turkey, a strategic opportunity to become a bridge between East and West. As a result, this route has become a battlefield between Ankara, Beijing, Brussels—and, of course, Moscow, which has no intention of standing by as influence shifts.
Below is an overview of how Central Asian and South Caucasus countries are positioning themselves in this race, what global powers want from the region, and what could prevent the Middle Corridor from becoming a viable alternative.
I. Regional Landscape: Who Is Building the Future?
Kazakhstan — The Region’s Locomotive
For over a decade, Kazakhstan has methodically established itself as a key Eurasian transit hub. Today, up to 85% of goods shipped from China to the EU pass through Kazakhstan. Its main asset is the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor. In 2024 alone, freight volumes along this route grew by 20%, reaching 3.3 million tonnes.
Alongside TITR, Kazakhstan is involved in other routes such as TRACECA and continues to invest in logistics and digital infrastructure. Its head start over its neighbors has made it a frontrunner in the new Eurasian logistics space.
Turkmenistan — Awakening from Isolation
Long absent from regional integration efforts, Turkmenistan is now shifting its foreign policy. Its new leadership is actively promoting transport projects and expanding international ties. Talks are underway to connect Turkmenistan to the Middle Corridor, and the country is also negotiating a route via the Caspian and Black Seas with Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Romania. Additionally, the Lapis Lazuli Corridor—running through Afghanistan and the Caucasus—is being revived.
The port of Turkmenbashi could become a crucial node, but the country must modernize its infrastructure and resolve domestic challenges.
Uzbekistan’s Logistics Strategy
Uzbekistan is working to reduce its transit dependency on Russia and Kazakhstan. It is backing the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway (construction is set to begin in 2025) and is also developing routes through Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Iran.
The key goal is to build a multi-vector transport architecture that allows Tashkent to respond flexibly to external changes. In this context, Turkmenistan is a necessary partner, and current bilateral relations are favorable.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: Trying to Catch Up
Kyrgyzstan also supports the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway—its chance to bypass Kazakhstan. The country hopes to reach the Caspian via Uzbekistan and reduce its dependence on Russia.
Tajikistan is developing a southern route through Afghanistan to Iran and the Persian Gulf. It has signed a memorandum of cooperation with the Iranian port of Chabahar and is looking to integrate into southern logistics chains.
The South Caucasus: At the Heart of Every Corridor
Azerbaijan and Georgia play a vital role in connecting Central Asia to Europe. The port of Baku, maritime routes across the Caspian, Georgian ports like Poti and Batumi, and the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway have made the region a critical transport hub.
However, risks remain: unresolved conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, disputes over the Nakhchivan corridor, and instability in Karabakh could all hinder corridor development.
II. Global Players: Who’s Mapping These Routes?
Turkey: The Gateway and Guarantor
Ankara actively promotes the idea of a “Turkic world” and is building direct connections with Central Asia through the Caucasus. Turkey participates in key infrastructure projects, including the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars line, and sees the Middle Corridor as a tool for political influence.
China: Diversification over Dependency
For China, the Middle Corridor is part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing is investing in railways, ports, and logistics to bypass bottlenecks like the Suez Canal and Russia. Cautious not to provoke Moscow, China is nevertheless steadily expanding its routes via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and onward to Europe.
The EU: Stability and Reform
The EU seeks reliable and transparent supply chains from Asia that do not rely on Russia. While not offering investments on the scale of China, it provides support in the form of regulatory standards, reforms, and green solutions—making it an appealing partner for countries pursuing integration with the West.
Russia: Maintaining Control
Moscow traditionally views Central Asia and the Caucasus as its sphere of privileged interest. It sees the Middle Corridor—especially routes bypassing Russia—as a threat. To counter it, Russia applies economic, political, and military pressure, including transit restrictions, influence through organizations like the CSTO and the EAEU, and bilateral pressure on neighboring states.
III. Risks and Weak Links in the New Logistics
Political Instability
Authoritarianism in Central Asia and unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus threaten the corridor’s long-term stability. Leadership changes, protests, or war could shut down a route overnight.
Regional Fragmentation
Each country is building its own logistics network independently. A lack of harmonized standards, shared digital systems, and coordinated reforms leaves the region fragmented and inefficient.
Pressure from Russia and Iran
Both Moscow and Tehran view the Middle Corridor’s growth as a threat. They possess significant leverage—from energy and trade to security. In a crisis, they could intervene either directly or via economic instruments.
Infrastructure and Digital Gaps
In many countries, roads, ports, and customs systems remain outdated. Digital logistics systems are weak. Without modernization, the Middle Corridor cannot truly rival existing routes.
What Comes Next?
The New Silk Roads are no longer an abstract vision—they are a battleground of real interests. Turkey, China, the EU, and Russia are shaping not only transport routes but spheres of influence across Eurasia.
Each power offers a different model: Turkey promotes geopolitical leadership and regional identity, China brings speed, capital, and infrastructure, the EU champions transparency and regulation, and Russia works to preserve its influence through pressure and alliances.
But a viable corridor depends on more than geography and investment. It requires sustained political cooperation, trust among partners, and shared modernization efforts. Whoever manages to lead on these fronts will ultimately become the true architect of the New Silk Roads.
