Recent developments inside Russia suggest the system is struggling to cope with mounting pressures. These include growing domestic strains, behind-the-scenes manoeuvring among elites, rumours of a coup d’état, a tighter and more reactive grip on control, fears of losing that control, and increasing exposure to Ukrainian strikes and assassinations. All this is unfolding against a worsening external backdrop: a destabilised Middle East and stalemate over Iran, a distracted Trump, and a more militarised (including nuclear-oriented) Europe.
For the first time in years of war, there may be a shift. Pressures have reached a point where too many actors inside Russia face a new reality: the status quo is starting to threaten their own position. If nothing changes, it makes survival difficult, if not impossible.
Until recently, many assumed that Putin had a plan, even if it was simply to keep the war going. Now there are growing doubts as to whether such a plan exists. And even if it does, it may imply political or physical ruin for some. Ironically, after years of pursuing a “wait and see” approach towards the West and, in part, Ukraine, Putin has now become the object of a similar approach from the Americans — an uncomfortable position for Russians.
There are growing sentiments in Russia that the current system of governance is becoming too damaging and increasingly self-defeating. Tolerance for the status quo is eroding. However, different actors interpret that change in opposing ways, while Putin appears either unable or unwilling to rethink his policy.
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