Rising oil prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East could bring a noticeable increase in Russia’s oil revenues in the coming weeks. According to Bloomberg, after global benchmark prices climbed above $100 per barrel, the additional income is likely to start showing up in Moscow’s export earnings.
Last week, however, the impact of higher prices was partly offset by a drop in shipments. The decline was caused by a halt in loadings at the Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea following a Ukrainian drone strike during the night of March 1–2. Shipments have since resumed, the agency reports, creating the conditions for exports to recover in the coming weeks.
Two factors supporting revenue
Bloomberg notes that Russia is benefiting from two developments at the same time.
First, the surge in global oil prices has lifted the value of Russian crude grades.
Second, a temporary U.S. waiver of certain restrictions has allowed Indian refiners to purchase Russian crude that was already on tankers.
This measure could help clear the growing fleet of tankers carrying Russian oil that has been waiting for buyers. In recent months dozens of vessels have been idling at sea. If Indian refineries step up purchases, the volume of oil stored on tankers could decline rapidly.
Oil stored on tankers
According to Bloomberg data, roughly 140 million barrels of Russian crude have been sitting on tankers since mid-December. That is about 60 million barrels more than at the end of August.
These volumes could quickly find buyers if disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies persist. This is particularly relevant given the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions surrounding Iran have limited tanker movements and crude flows from the Persian Gulf.
Indian refiners have already purchased around 30 million barrels of Russian oil after Washington effectively gave the green light for such transactions, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the deals.
Temporary decline in exports
Despite the rise in prices, Russia’s actual oil shipments temporarily declined.
According to tanker-tracking data, seaborne exports averaged 3.26 million barrels per day in the four weeks to March 8. That is about 200,000 barrels per day lower than a week earlier and more than 600,000 barrels per day below the peak reached before Christmas.
On a weekly basis the drop was even more pronounced. In the week to March 8, shipments averaged 2.64 million barrels per day, the lowest level since February 2025. The decline was largely caused by the temporary shutdown of exports from Novorossiysk.
Russian crude prices climb
The Middle East conflict has also pushed up the prices of Russian oil grades.
According to Argus Media, cited by Bloomberg:
- Urals crude from Baltic ports rose by about $3.20, reaching $45.98 per barrel;
- Black Sea Urals cargoes increased to $44.34 per barrel;
- the Pacific ESPO blend climbed to $56.75 per barrel;
- delivered prices of Russian oil in India rose to $62.68 per barrel.
At the same time, the overall value of Russia’s oil exports has remained relatively stable. Over the four weeks to March 8, the gross value of seaborne exports averaged about $1.13 billion per week.
Asia remains the main destination
Asian countries continue to be the primary buyers of Russian oil. Bloomberg estimates that shipments to Asian customers, including cargoes without a final destination yet specified, averaged about 3.04 million barrels per day.
Some tankers list interim destinations such as the Suez Canal or Port Said, while the final delivery point is sometimes not disclosed until late in the voyage. This makes the tracking of export flows less transparent.
Risks and warnings from Moscow
Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged energy producers to treat the windfall cautiously. According to him, the current surge in commodity prices may prove temporary.
Nevertheless, if disruptions to Middle Eastern oil flows persist, Russian exporters could see a significant financial gain. Bloomberg notes that the combination of higher prices and the resumption of shipments from Black Sea ports may lead to a noticeable increase in Russia’s oil revenues in the coming weeks.
This article was prepared based on materials published by Bloomberg. The author does not claim authorship of the original text but presents their interpretation of the content for informational purposes.
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