Russia is actively lobbying the new Trump administration to lift U.S. sanctions on its aviation and banking sectors, with civil aviation emerging as one of the most vulnerable industries under Western restrictions.
Mounting Pressure on Russian Aviation
A recent Russian Security Council meeting highlighted the looming crisis in the country’s commercial aviation sector, warning that critical vulnerabilities could emerge within the next two to three years.
Western sanctions imposed since 2022 have dealt a severe blow to Russian civil aviation. The embargo on new aircraft, spare parts, and maintenance services for Western-made jets has left Russian airlines struggling to ensure flight safety and operational reliability. As the supply of original components and certified repairs diminishes, mechanical failures, flight delays, and safety risks continue to rise.
Prior to the sanctions, approximately 80% of Russia’s commercial aircraft fleet consisted of Boeing and Airbus jets, requiring regular maintenance and component replacements. However, the complete halt in the supply of original spare parts and software has placed airlines in a precarious situation.
Workarounds and Short-Term Solutions
With official procurement channels blocked, Russian airlines have resorted to parallel imports through third countries, including the UAE, China, Turkey, and India. However, this workaround does not cover all necessary components, and many original parts must be sourced from the grey market. Between May 2022 and June 2023, Russia imported $1.2 billion worth of aviation parts, yet this still falls short of the industry’s needs.
As a desperate measure, airlines have begun dismantling aircraft for spare parts, effectively turning portions of their fleets into “donors.” By the end of 2023, around 30% of Russia’s commercial aircraft were grounded for cannibalization, according to Rosaviatsiya, the country’s aviation authority. The trend is accelerating, with flag carrier Aeroflot prioritizing international routes and shifting domestic passengers onto smaller aircraft and connecting flights.
Rising Safety Concerns
The impact of maintenance challenges on flight safety is becoming increasingly evident. In 2022, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) placed Russia on its “red list” for failing to ensure airworthiness oversight. The number of technical failures has risen sharply, with Russian airlines recording an average of five engine failures per month in 2021. By December 2024, that figure had more than doubled to 11, including eight incidents involving Boeing and Airbus jets.
Notable incidents include an Aeroflot Boeing 737 that made an emergency return to Krasnodar in January 2025 due to a hydraulic system failure and an Airbus A320 forced to land in February following navigation system malfunctions. Passenger complaints about delays and cancellations are also increasing, with 20% of major airline flights delayed by more than two hours in December 2024.
The Longevity of Western Aircraft in Russia
A key concern is how long Russia can continue operating Western aircraft without proper support. Experts initially estimated that by 2024-2025, some Boeing and Airbus jets would begin reaching the limits of their operational lifespans, requiring major overhauls that cannot be performed without original parts. If sanctions persist, Russia’s fleet of Western aircraft could shrink significantly, sustained only through aircraft cannibalization and parallel imports.
Domestic Production Challenges
In response, the Russian government has accelerated efforts to replace foreign aircraft. Under the “Aviation 2030” program, Moscow aims to produce 1,036 new aircraft by 2030, with 70% being medium-haul jets such as the MC-21, Tu-214, and SSJ-New. Funding has been secured for 609 aircraft, with state investments amounting to RUB 283 billion.
However, achieving these targets remains difficult. Before sanctions, Russian manufacturers produced only a handful of aircraft per year, often relying heavily on foreign components. Scaling up domestic production remains a significant challenge.
“We are doing everything possible to maintain safety, but without certified maintenance and original spare parts, this is becoming increasingly difficult,” an engineer at a leading Russian airline told The Financial Times. “Previously, Boeing and Airbus would track aircraft health and alert us to potential failures. Now, we are flying blind.”
Calls for Sanctions Relief
Robert Agee, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia (AmCham Russia), recently stated that lifting aviation sanctions is being discussed within business circles, framing the issue as a humanitarian necessity rather than just a commercial concern.
Financially, the Russian aviation sector remains under strain. Aeroflot Group posted a net loss of RUB 29.5 billion under Russian accounting standards, with its subsidiary Rossiya Airlines losing RUB 31 billion. Overall, 12 Russian airlines were profitable in 2023, generating a combined RUB 65 billion, while 17 carriers reported losses totaling RUB 56 billion. This marks an improvement from the crisis-hit 2022, when the industry recorded RUB 134 billion in losses.
With direct flights to the West suspended, Russian travelers now rely on connecting routes through Istanbul, Dubai, Doha, Yerevan, and Belgrade. This has led to a surge in market share for foreign carriers. In 2022, international airlines transported 12.5 million passengers to and from Russia – more than double the figure from 2021. Turkish, Emirati, Qatari, and Chinese airlines have expanded routes and capacity, with Emirates and Etihad adding new regional services to Russia. As a result, Russian dependence on foreign carriers has increased, particularly for long-haul routes.
State Intervention and the Road Ahead
The Russian aviation sector has become increasingly reliant on government support. Direct financial injections, route subsidies, and legal interventions in areas such as leasing and insurance have kept the industry afloat. However, this has come at a significant fiscal cost, amounting to hundreds of billions of rubles, effectively nationalizing large portions of the sector.
As long as sanctions remain in place, government backing will likely continue, ensuring airlines can afford rising fuel and maintenance costs while financing fleet renewal. However, without access to Western aircraft and maintenance services, Russia’s aviation industry faces an uncertain and challenging future.
