The Kremlin did not anticipate President Trump’s swift announcement of sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil.
“The Kremlin, as always, has retreated into silent contemplation. The Russian Foreign Ministry says it remains open to continued contact but is clearly showing concern over the collapse of dialogue,” a diplomatic source told us.
According to several interlocutors, the Kremlin is somewhat shocked by the White House’s actions. Putin, it seems, is unwilling to lose dialogue with Trump — a relationship that has been developing with great difficulty from the start. Russia cannot afford to lose communication with America, as it serves as political validation of the country’s international standing. Despite his rhetoric, Putin does not want to find himself in the same category as Kim Jong Un or Ayatollah Khamenei.
Experts believe that Moscow is unlikely to react harshly and will instead try to let the situation cool down, focusing on finding new, more appealing proposals.
“Someone apparently thought that Putin’s missile drills would scare Trump. But populists like these are scared of nothing,” one expert noted.
There is a strong likelihood that internal inconsistency and conflicting signals from Putin’s entourage have caused the breakdown in dialogue with the White House.
It appears that the Dmitriev–Witkoff channel of communication has diverged sharply from the Rubio–Lavrov one. After Trump’s meeting with Zelensky, the White House handed the negotiation mandate to Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio. As a result, the information flowing through the Dmitriev–Witkoff backchannel now barely aligns with what is transmitted via Rubio and Lavrov. Meanwhile, neither Putin nor Trump delves into the details of the conflict scenarios.
“Trump wants a bold, visible result — not a drawn-out dispute or a complicated negotiation track. It’s as if he makes an agreement with Putin, and then Lavrov steps in — and the arguing begins,” said one source.
The sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are indeed painful, several oil industry experts note. These companies account for nearly half of Russia’s total oil production, making the blow a serious one. It should also be remembered that Rosneft and Igor Sechin maintained an active dialogue with ExxonMobil — a company close to Trump — while Lukoil has extensive foreign infrastructure and is now closely linked to the Kovalchuk group.
“Trump has struck directly at Putin’s inner circle — something even Biden did not dare to do. This is a deeply unpleasant and painful step by Washington,” one expert observed.
“The Trump team is hitting the backbone. The next targets will likely be Gazprom and long-range weapon systems — a move that will hit Russia’s refineries and oil industry. There’s practically no way to counter this threat, and that’s fueling pessimism inside the Kremlin,” he added.
