With the Ukrainian issue ostensibly settled—for now—Moscow appears poised to redirect its efforts toward a new strategic front: a prolonged proxy confrontation with the European Union. This battle will not be fought through direct military engagement but through political subversion and economic maneuvering.
Russia is expected to escalate its support for pro-Moscow and far-right factions in the Baltic states and Central Europe, aiming to deepen divisions within the EU. The Kremlin is betting on Germany’s post-Scholz leadership, particularly under the CDU, and on Emmanuel Macron’s eventual departure in France, with the ultimate goal of eroding European unity from within.
Domestically, Russia will tighten its grip further. Despite economic concerns—even Senate Speaker Valentina Matviyenko has warned of an impending crisis—there is no indication of a political thaw. The repression of opposition voices will persist, albeit with potentially reduced intensity. Of particular concern to the Kremlin is the fate of the ultra-nationalist “Z” movement, which may soon face fragmentation and legal pressure. Formerly influential war correspondents and military bloggers will likely be repurposed as state propagandists, tasked with reinforcing the narrative of victory and managing Russia’s post-war discourse.
Another notable shift will be Russia’s approach to political exiles. The Kremlin is preparing a campaign to discredit opposition figures abroad, aiming to fracture exile networks and pressure high-profile dissidents into returning home, following a model similar to Belarus under Lukashenko.
Belarus and Beyond: The Kremlin’s Post-War Playbook
With renewed legitimacy through engagement with a Trump-led White House, the Russian regime will reassert its influence across the post-Soviet sphere. Nowhere will this be more evident than in Belarus.
Moscow is expected to expand its military footprint in Belarus, ramp up investments, and cultivate a new generation of pro-Kremlin political operatives. This will pose a direct challenge to Alexander Lukashenko, whose hold on power is increasingly tenuous due to internal dissent and age. In the coming years, a struggle for control over Belarus is likely, with both Moscow and Western powers vying for dominance.
Simultaneously, Russia will execute a delicate geopolitical balancing act in the South Caucasus. To consolidate its influence in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, the Kremlin may cede some interests in the region. While recognizing Turkey and Azerbaijan’s growing influence, Moscow has little appetite for confrontation. Instead, it may quietly encourage tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia while recalibrating its relationship with Iran in light of evolving U.S. policies under Trump.
Kazakhstan, in particular, is emerging as a key battleground. Russia is expected to increase its involvement while simultaneously expanding its influence in Tajikistan.
On a global scale, Russia’s approach to BRICS is likely to evolve. While maintaining strong ties with India, Moscow may strategically cool its relations with Beijing to assert greater influence in Central Asia.
North Korea will also play a role in Russia’s post-war strategy. Having cultivated stronger ties with Pyongyang, Moscow will leverage this relationship to extract diplomatic and economic concessions from South Korea, Japan, and even China.
The New Geopolitical Landscape
As the dust settles, several conclusions emerge:
- Russia emerges from the Ukraine war with significant losses but valuable strategic insights.
- The Kremlin will adopt a more cautious approach to large-scale military conflicts in the near future.
- Russia’s focus will shift toward consolidating influence in Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia while engaging in a strategic proxy war with the EU.
- Belarus will become a top priority as Moscow seeks to cement its control.
- The Russian economy will attempt to circumvent sanctions through new trade alliances.
- Domestic repression will persist, with increasing fractures within Russia’s ruling elite.
While the Ukraine war may be drawing to a close, the next phase of Russia’s geopolitical ambitions is only just beginning.
