Not Just Ukraine: Europe’s Southern Flank Under Pressure
Rome and Athens are sending a clear message: Europe’s focus on the eastern front must not blind it to the dangers brewing in the south. Migration flows from Libya are once again spiking, while Russia’s influence, according to Italian officials, is reaching a new level — from arms shipments to plans for a naval base in Tobruk.
Greece, too, is stepping up its efforts: it has deployed two warships off the Libyan coast. The reason isn’t just the surge in migrants, but also Turkey’s actions. Ankara is working with Libyan authorities to redraw maritime boundaries in the Mediterranean to expand energy exploration — claims that Athens deems illegal under international maritime law, as they cover waters south of Crete.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani stated, “Libya is an emergency that Europe must address together.” But a recent attempt by the EU to make diplomatic inroads ended in failure.
A Diplomatic Fiasco in Benghazi — and Who’s Behind It
Last week, an EU delegation led by Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner and accompanied by ministers from Italy, Greece, and Malta arrived in Benghazi — the capital of Eastern Libya, controlled by General Khalifa Haftar. But the mission ended abruptly: the Europeans were declared persona non grata, accused of unspecified “violations,” and expelled.
This wasn’t just a diplomatic humiliation — it signaled that the EU is no longer treated as a serious player in the region. According to EU diplomats, the episode reflects Russia’s growing clout as Haftar’s key backer.
“Russia continues to expand its presence in Libya, turning it into a central node in its African strategy,” said one EU diplomat. He emphasized that Moscow is working with smuggling networks that help it circumvent sanctions and use migration as a tool to pressure Europe.
Libya Back on the Agenda — But Only for Athens and Rome
Greece is feeling the impact most acutely. In the first half of 2025, about 9,000 migrants have arrived in Crete from Libya — nearly double the total for all of 2024, and in the middle of the tourist season.
“An emergency situation requires emergency measures,” Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis told lawmakers. “We have notified the European Commission of our decision to suspend the processing of asylum applications for those arriving from North Africa by sea, initially for three months.”
Two Greek frigates have been deployed to patrol the waters. But officials have doubts about their effectiveness, fearing that migrants may deliberately jump into the water to force rescue. Over 2,000 people landed in Crete in the last week of June alone.
The Greek government is also under fire domestically for having largely abandoned the Libya file in recent years.
The central Mediterranean route has now become the primary channel for irregular migration: in the first half of 2025, crossings there rose by 7% — nearly all originating in Libya — while crossings on all other major routes dropped by 20%.
As Greece tightens its asylum system, Italy worries that more migrants will be pushed toward its shores. “We are concerned about the situation in Libya and the recent increase in irregular departures,” said a European Commission spokesperson. But being concerned is one thing; acting is another.
Russia Consolidates: Weapons, Bases, and Potential Missiles
A recent military parade in Benghazi featuring Russian weaponry confirmed deepening ties between Moscow and Haftar. According to the Italian news agency Agenzia Nova, Russia is considering deploying missile systems in Sebha — a city in southern Libya under Haftar’s control — with the capability to target Europe.
Experts are skeptical that such deployments are imminent, but the implications are alarming. “Even without the missiles, Russia already uses Libyan bases for logistics, which theoretically could pose a threat to Europe,” said Arturo Varvelli, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
So far, Russia is mainly using these bases to support operations across Africa through the so-called Africa Corps, backed by the Russian defense ministry.
EU officials fear that Russia could soon weaponize migration again — as it did on the Belarus-Poland border — this time from Libya.
Still, not everything is going Moscow’s way. One EU diplomat noted that the war in Ukraine is straining Russia’s ability to pay local militias, leading to tensions with its Libyan proxies.
“I don’t see the Russians taking over the migrant smuggling business,” said Karim Mezran of the Atlantic Council. “But I do see them saying, ‘I’m the new boss now — follow my orders.’”
Italy and Greece Stand Alone
Despite the gravity of the threat, Athens and Rome are struggling to rally their allies. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Rome on June 4 to discuss Libya.
An Italian official familiar with the talks said, “Libya is, of course, a key issue for both Italy and France. There are shared concerns — especially regarding Russia’s growing presence and migration.” Still, he acknowledged that the two countries differ “in the possible political solutions.”
As Libya increasingly appears on diplomatic agendas, the practical response remains limited.
France: The Instigator of Intervention — and the Absent Ally
France’s silence on Libya is striking — especially considering its central role in launching the 2011 NATO intervention that toppled Muammar Gaddafi. Then-President Nicolas Sarkozy pushed for a “humanitarian mission,” but the aftermath was chaos: Libya collapsed into anarchy, without functioning institutions and torn apart by armed factions.
Today, with the consequences of that intervention becoming a structural threat to Europe’s southern flank, Paris remains hesitant. “Politically, the French government has little interest in crying wolf on Russia — doing so would highlight the failures of its own Africa policy,” said Libya expert Virginie Collombier of LUISS University in Rome.
Indeed, as France withdraws from Mali, Niger, and the Central African Republic, Russia is quickly filling the vacuum. France is losing ground across Africa, while Moscow, Ankara, and Beijing expand their influence.
In this context, Paris’s reluctance to take the lead in stabilizing Libya looks less like diplomatic restraint — and more like a geopolitical retreat.
Europe Ignores the Southern Threat — at Its Own Peril
The United States, focused on the Indo-Pacific, shows little appetite to invest political capital in Libya. Most tellingly, NATO’s most recent declaration, signed on June 25 in The Hague, does not mention Africa at all.
“No one wanted divisive issues included. NATO now operates with a very minimalist agenda,” explained Alessandro Marrone, head of the defense and security program at the Rome-based Istituto Affari Internazionali.
Rome and Athens are thus left to face the brewing crisis alone. Libya is now a source of regional instability, a channel for strategic migration pressure, and a foothold for Russia. Yet judging by the muted responses from Paris, Brussels, and Washington, Europe still refuses to acknowledge the scale of the threat along its southern flank.
“Rome has to face this reality,” Marrone concluded.
But the question remains: how long will Europe keep turning a blind eye to Libya — before the consequences of its passivity hit home with full force?
This article was prepared based on materials published by Politico. The author does not claim authorship of the original text but presents their interpretation of the content for informational purposes.
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