Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is reportedly advancing a series of strategic initiatives aimed at fully disengaging Armenia from its longstanding cooperation with Russia. These measures, allegedly developed in coordination with Baku, signal a decisive shift in the country’s foreign policy.
Key Measures to End Cooperation with Moscow
According to anonymous sources cited by Russian Telegram channels, Pashinyan’s plans include the following actions:
- Termination of Armenia’s involvement in all formats of interaction within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
- Halting data exchange with Moscow and Minsk, specifically between tax authorities and state security agencies.
These measures reflect a broader strategy to realign Armenia’s geopolitical stance in the region.
Tensions Between Baku and Moscow: A Strategic Advantage
Analysts suggest that Pashinyan is capitalizing on escalating tensions between Baku and Moscow following the recent incident involving the downing of an AZAL airline plane. The strained relations have provided Armenia with an opportune moment to negotiate its withdrawal from the CSTO under conditions favorable to Yerevan.
Internal Reforms and Crackdowns
The Armenian government has already initiated significant internal changes:
- Arrests and dismissals of officials, including former employees of Armenia’s Ministry of Defense.
- A potential crackdown on influential businessmen associated with the “Karabakh clan,” including figures like Samvel Karapetyan.
One source indicated that Yerevan will not intervene in processes involving individuals such as Ruben Vardanyan.
In addition, Armenia is planning a large-scale overhaul of its security structures, reportedly modeled on the American system. The reform is expected to be completed by 2025, further reducing Russia’s influence over Armenia’s defense and security apparatus.
Impact on Russia’s Regional Influence
Pashinyan’s moves are dealing a considerable blow to Russia’s diplomatic and military presence in the South Caucasus. Key figures in Russia’s political establishment, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and influential members of the State Duma, have seen their positions weakened.
Sources indicate that by 2025, several high-profile Russian officials, such as Lavrov, Konstantin Zatulin, Vladimir Dzhabarov, and select senators from the Federation Council, may resign.
A Long-Term Geopolitical Shift
Pashinyan’s strategy is becoming increasingly structured and long-term, with both internal and external political changes pointing to a definitive break with Moscow. This evolving approach marks a significant realignment in Armenia’s foreign policy and regional positioning.
As Armenia distances itself from its traditional ally, the South Caucasus geopolitical landscape appears set for a period of profound transformation.
