Lukashenko Announces Readiness for Joint Use With Russia
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Oct. 31 confirmed plans to deploy Russia’s new medium-range ballistic missile system, known as the Oreshnik. According to Lukashenko, Minsk and Moscow are prepared to employ the system jointly if necessary. Western governments — including Ukraine and Poland — warn that the deployment creates a new missile threat to Europe, given the system’s reported range of up to 5,500 kilometers.
Belarusian officials describe the Oreshnik as an element of defensive deterrence. Alexander Neverovsky, deputy state secretary of Belarus’ Security Council, said that deepening military cooperation with Russia is driven by the “escalating militarization” in neighboring states. He cited arms purchases by the Baltic countries, the deployment of German tank units to Lithuania, and expanded intelligence activity along Belarus’ borders as developments requiring countermeasures.
Lukashenko said the system is mobile and will operate along predefined routes. Authorities confirmed that preparations of deployment sites have been completed. The Defense Ministry stated that logistical support and personnel training issues have been resolved and that coordination with Russian units will be organized through existing bilateral mechanisms.
A Union State Project With Expanding Infrastructure in Belarus
Official Minsk stresses that the Oreshnik is a product of the Union State and is being developed jointly: Belarus manufactures the MZKT-79291 chassis, while Russia produces the strike components. In 2024–2025, large-scale construction has been underway in the Slutsk district south of Minsk, presumably for a missile battalion. Over more than two square kilometers, new hangars, storage facilities, and infrastructure resembling former Soviet missile sites — once located there until the early 1990s — are being built. Units equipped with the Oreshnik are expected to rotate between positions and use the site as a hub for resupply and maintenance.
Lukashenko has repeatedly said that decisions on the use of the system would be made jointly with Putin, with targeting to be determined by Minsk. However, under Russia’s strategic command structure, combat duty and employment of missile complexes fall under the jurisdiction of the Strategic Rocket Forces and ultimately the Russian president. Assigning the Oreshnik to the Regional Grouping of Forces effectively grants operational control to Russian command, while Minsk assumes auxiliary functions.
Western intelligence assessments suggest Russia produces around six Oreshnik missiles per year and possessed a small stockpile by the end of 2024. Belarus is expected to receive at least one missile battalion — two or three launchers plus a mobile command post — with possible expansion later.
Strategic Implications and Escalation Risks
Despite Minsk’s claims of a purely defensive deployment, forward positioning of ballistic missiles close to a potential theater of operations is commonly viewed as preparation for possible offensive action. Launches from Belarusian territory would face interception by U.S. and NATO missile-defense layers, meaning such systems might require preliminary suppression efforts during a conflict.
This increases the likelihood that the Oreshnik will be perceived as a tool for a preemptive strike.
Updated Russian-Belarusian security agreements include broad language on mutual assistance, potentially allowing the system’s use in the context of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine or any escalation with NATO. Stationing the Oreshnik on Belarusian soil makes the country a priority target for any retaliatory strike and heightens the risk of direct military confrontation along NATO’s eastern flank.
