The scale of change will depend on what happens in Tehran
The unfolding conflict in the Middle East may require adjustments to the core ideological messaging of Russia’s upcoming State Duma campaign. The scale of those changes will depend largely on how events around Iran develop.
One source said that adjustments “will happen in any case,” but their depth will be determined by whether the current government in Tehran manages to stay in power. If the Iranian leadership succeeds in keeping the situation under control, the changes in rhetoric are likely to remain limited. If not, the source said, the anti-Western line in the election campaign could become much more pronounced.
According to sources, the mildest version of this approach would center on the theme of state sovereignty. This argument is already widely used in official rhetoric and is expected to become one of the core pillars of the Duma campaign. If, however, Iran undergoes a change of power, the emphasis on confrontation with the West is likely to intensify.
Sovereignty, self-sufficiency, and reduced dependence
In Russia’s domestic political thinking, sources say, Iran is often viewed as a possible projection of the current political system’s future. For that reason, the fall or serious weakening of the Iranian regime could lead to much more active promotion of the idea that state sovereignty is of critical importance.
In that case, parties are expected to be encouraged to focus more heavily on themes such as economic self-sufficiency, import substitution, and limited dependence on foreign partners. According to one source, these themes will be promoted regardless of actual public demand and will become a mandatory part of the rhetoric used by most parties and candidates.
Power sacralization, stability, and the Telegram factor
Sources also say that the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is influencing the propaganda agenda in a separate way.
The media space is already actively promoting the message that “the president must be protected.” In the view of these sources, such events reinforce the broader tendency toward the sacralization of power and the promotion of the idea that resistance to state institutions is unacceptable. The message of stability and continuity of power is expected to be pushed particularly actively by pro-government parties.
Another important factor is Telegram. In Iran, mobile internet was blocked, and the platform itself, according to experts, played a significant role in coordinating protest activity. In Russia, the issue of possible restrictions on Telegram is being discussed as a potentially powerful mobilizing theme for protest voting. According to sources, this issue could be used by the Communist Party, and to some extent by New People and A Just Russia — For Truth.
At the same time, the sources say, parties may be allowed to make limited use of social discontent linked to internet restrictions. This approach is seen as a way to partially soften the negative effect of possible restrictive measures, regardless of how events in Iran unfold.
Overall, the Iranian crisis is creating additional demand for stronger political narratives centered on legitimizing emergency measures, strengthening state self-sufficiency, and reinforcing the idea of durable, stable power. Sources believe there is a high probability that the domestic policy bloc of the presidential administration will instruct political parties to take these themes into account when shaping their election messaging.
