Revised Balance of Payments Data Shows Significant Adjustments
Russia’s central bank has released updated balance of payments data, covering the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first two months of 2025. The latest figures have undergone significant revisions, aligning more closely with customs service (FTS) data and resolving discrepancies previously noted in our March 3 review. These adjustments have resulted in a sharp increase in the goods and services balance for Q4 2024, which doubled to $21.8 billion from the pre-revision estimate of $11 billion. Similarly, the current account surplus saw an even more pronounced rise, reaching $14.9 billion, up from $4.8 billion. Notably, every month within this period recorded a current account surplus.
Export and Import Trends Reflect Economic Pressures
Following these revisions, the non-oil-and-gas export segment no longer exhibits a steep decline. This updated trend is now consistent with FTS data, indicating a recovery. In February, non-oil-and-gas exports rose by an estimated 12% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Meanwhile, oil and gas exports, which had remained relatively stable in prior months, weakened in February, falling by 8.4% month-on-month (seasonally adjusted, based on estimates using IEA data). This decline was driven entirely by falling oil and petroleum product prices, as physical export volumes decreased by only 1%.
At the same time, imports of goods and services plummeted in February, dropping to $25 billion—a 14% month-on-month decline on a seasonally adjusted basis. This drop may signal the conclusion of an aggressive phase of machinery and equipment imports that began in September 2024. FTS data indicate that such imports surged by 14% year-on-year in Q4 2024 before slowing to 8.6% in January. While the contraction in imports has contributed to strengthening the trade balance, it also points to underlying systemic concerns, potentially reflecting a cooling of investment activity in response to mounting economic pressures.
Outlook for the Rouble and Economic Stability
The upward revision of key balance-of-payments metrics has alleviated previous doubts regarding the factors supporting the rouble’s resilience in early 2025. However, despite a healthier current account surplus, the rouble’s current strength appears overstretched. It remains largely sustained by investor optimism over a potential easing of geopolitical tensions—an optimism that may prove short-lived. While no drastic shifts are anticipated in the immediate term, the baseline scenario suggests a gradual weakening of the rouble beyond 90 to the dollar as underlying vulnerabilities in the Russian economy become increasingly apparent.
