Agriculture has continued to show stability and growth over the year, even as recessionary trends weigh on the broader real sector. The grain harvest remains at a consistently high average annual level—135 million tons overall, including 90 million tons of wheat. Average yields for key crops rose markedly: rye up 24%, wheat up 14%, lentils up 55%, peas up 37%, potatoes up 16%, and so on.
These results were made possible by systematic government support for the agro-industrial complex—an outgrowth of “supply-side” principles, as opposed to the Central Bank’s liberal-monetarist, “demand-restriction” approach. In 2024–2025 alone, rural producers received more than 1.2 trillion rubles in direct support. This is not charity to prop up social stability: under a sensible monetary policy, every ruble invested in food production generates at least 1.5 rubles in aggregate profit—let alone the indirect social benefits and the boost to export potential. In 2023, food exports reached $45 billion, placing Russia third worldwide and second among the country’s export industries.
The paradox is that growth in physical output has not been matched by a corresponding increase in farm profits, depriving producers of the ability to modernize and expand. The main reason is the rise in input costs driven by a high key interest rate. Machinery, fuel, fertilizers, seed and genetic material have all become at least twice as expensive. As a result, profitability has fallen to minimal levels despite budget subsidies. The government simply cannot keep pace in compensating intermediary banks for the mounting cost of advance financing.
Prospects for 2026 remain unfavorable after the Central Bank effectively confirmed its intention to maintain tight monetary policy amid inflation running above the regulator’s promised 6–7% range. If nothing changes—and if the executive branch fails to persuade the Bank of Russia that its policy is undermining foundational sectors—retail food prices could rise by 5–7%, and farms may find themselves on the brink of bankruptcy, forced to cut output.
