(Based on Nikolai Mitrokhin’s analysis)
1. Metropolitan Barsanuphius (Sudakov)
Age and Position: 69, head of the St. Petersburg Metropolis.
Background: A product of the monastic milieu at the Trinity-Sergius Lavra in the 1970s–1980s. Previously served as Managing Director of the Moscow Patriarchate at the outset of Patriarch Kirill’s tenure, where he played a role in neutralizing conservative bishops opposing Kirill’s perceived “St. Petersburg liberalism.”
Reputation and Key Points:
- Firmly conservative and staunchly loyal to Kirill.
- His tenure in St. Petersburg has been free of major scandals but also lacks notable triumphs.
- Despite 15 years under Kirill, he has struggled to establish a strong support base among the episcopate.
2. Metropolitan Pavel (Ponomaryov)
Age and Position: 72, head of the Krutitsy Metropolis.
Background:
- Entered the senior leadership of the ROC in 2013 when Kirill reassigned him from Ryazan to head the Belarusian Orthodox Church (BOC).
- Clashed with Lukashenko during the 2020 protests, leading to his reassignment to Krasnodar and, in 2021, to the influential Krutitsy Metropolis.
Reputation and Key Points:
- Known for a flexible management style; in Belarus, he refrained from major personnel changes and allowed services in Belarusian.
- Moderately conservative (educated at the Trinity-Sergius Lavra) yet pragmatic in accommodating local circumstances.
- Has international experience through the Department for External Church Relations (DECR).
- His relatively low media presence and limited connections with bishops appointed during Kirill’s tenure could be a disadvantage. However, his balanced leadership is seen as a “golden mean” following Kirill’s more dynamic and authoritarian rule.
3. The Right-Conservative Bloc
Several prominent hardliners have emerged, though their prospects for assuming the patriarchate appear uncertain:
Metropolitan Vasily (Kulakov), of Yekaterinodar (b. 1971):
- Represents the “last Soviet generation,” holding a medical degree.
- Advocates radical fundamentalist views influenced by the revered Elder Naum (Baiborodin).
Metropolitan Theognost (Guzikov), of Kashira:
- Former head of the Synodal Department for Monasteries and Monasticism.
- Represents the right-conservative clergy of central Russia.
- Recently removed from several positions amid corruption rumors.
Metropolitan Yevgeny (Kulberg), of Yekaterinburg (b. 1972):
- A favorite of Patriarch Kirill and a prominent church monarchist.
- Infamously participated in disrupting the “Beware, Religion” exhibition at the Sakharov Centre.
- The Yekaterinburg diocese, with its history of scandals, may hinder his career progression.
4. Metropolitan Anthony (Sevryuk)
Age and Position: 40, head of the DECR and a permanent member of the Holy Synod.
Background:
- From Tver, educated in St. Petersburg’s theological schools.
- Viewed as “Europeanized” or “pro-Catholic,” drawing conservative criticism for kissing Pope Benedict XVI’s hand at the Vatican.
Reputation and Key Points:
- A skilled bureaucrat, instrumental in displacing Metropolitan Hilarion from key positions.
- Considered too “liberal” for the deeply conservative ROC, which limits his immediate chances for the patriarchal seat.
5. Metropolitan Hilarion (Alfeyev)
- Once regarded as the “second most influential figure” in the ROC and a former head of the DECR.
- Recently lost his Hungarian diocese and was reassigned to Karlovy Vary without a pastoral role.
- Known as an intellectual “liberal” within the episcopate, but now appears to be in decline.
6. The State of Patriarch Kirill
- The patriarchal office is a lifelong appointment, and no official indications suggest Kirill’s imminent departure.
- Despite recurring reports of health concerns and reduced diocesan visits, historical precedent shows that the ROC often continues under an ailing primate, as seen with Patriarch Pimen or Metropolitan Volodymyr (Sabodan). Kirill’s role may be reduced to giving blessings rather than active governance.
Final Observations
Most Frequently Mentioned Likely Contenders:
- Metropolitan Pavel (Ponomaryov): A balanced leader with significant administrative experience, global exposure, and moderate conservatism.
- Metropolitan Barsanuphius (Sudakov): A reliable conservative loyalist, though lacking strong support among newer bishops.
Other Potential Figures:
- Right-Conservative Bishops (Vasily, Theognost, Yevgeny): Influential but potentially hindered by radical positions or reputational issues.
- Metropolitan Anthony (Sevryuk): Young and internationally minded, yet unlikely to gain widespread acceptance among the ROC’s conservative majority.
- Metropolitan Hilarion (Alfeyev): Appears to have lost favor, making his elevation improbable.
General Trend:
A new generation of administrators is emerging within the Church, gaining expertise in managing its vast institutional structure.
No immediate signs of a transition in power: Patriarch Kirill remains firmly in control, and the ROC historically favors continuity over abrupt change.
