Preliminary data for 2024 indicates a relatively stable current account surplus (CA) for the full year but reveals a negative trend in the second half.
Current Account Surplus Overview
The current account surplus for 2024 stood at $53.8 billion, an increase from $50.1 billion in 2023. However, this figure remains significantly lower than the historical averages:
- $65 billion during the sanctions-adjusted period before the geopolitical crisis (2014–2021)
- $75 billion for 2017–2021.
Key Considerations
- Export Data Limitations: Export flows are recorded in the balance of payments regardless of final payment. Since 2022, a significant portion of Russian exports has accumulated as accounts receivable without direct payment.
- Capital Constraints: Intensified secondary sanctions have reduced the repatriation of export proceeds into the Russian financial system, limiting the actual surplus available for allocation.
- Paper Gains: The current account surplus figures largely represent “paper” performance, lacking mechanisms to measure accessible resources.
Export and Import Trends
Goods Exports
- 2024: $417.2 billion
- 2023: $424.5 billion
- 2021: $494 billion
- Peak: $527 billion (2012)
Services Exports
- 2024: $42.3 billion
- 2023: $41.2 billion
- 2021: $56 billion
- Peak: $65 billion (2018)
Combined goods and services exports totaled $460 billion in 2024, a decline from:
- $466 billion in 2023
- $550 billion in 2021
- Historical high of $590 billion in 2012–2013
Goods and Services Imports
- 2024: $375 billion
- 2023: $379 billion
- 2021: $380 billion
Import volumes have remained stable despite sanctions, staying below the 2012–2013 peak of $445–470 billion.
Key Observations
Sanctions have disproportionately affected exports while leaving imports relatively unaffected.
Current Account Deterioration
The current account surplus consistently narrowed throughout 2024:
- Q1 2024: $24 billion
- Q2 2024: $17.3 billion
- Q3 2024: $7.8 billion
- Q4 2024: $4.8 billion
In December 2024, the Central Bank reported a CA deficit of $1.3 billion, driven by a sharp drop in exports.
Export Trends
Export performance was stable during the first nine months of 2024 but declined significantly in the final months:
- November 2024: -5.3% year-on-year (y/y)
- December 2024: -19% y/y
This decline is primarily attributed to goods, while services exports remained stable.
Import Trends
Imports showed resilience with upward momentum:
- H1 2024: $174.2 billion (-7.5% y/y) vs. $188.5 billion in H1 2023
- H2 2024: $200.8 billion (+5.2% y/y) vs. $190.9 billion in H2 2023
- Q4 2024: Imports rose 4.8% y/y but fell slightly in December (-6.5% y/y)
Possible Drivers
The worsening export data likely reflects the impact of stricter sanctions introduced in November 2024, as there were no comparable adverse shifts in external market conditions.
