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Russian Balance of Payments Analysis for 2024

1 min read
Ruble exchange
Author: Ruslan Grigoriev
Spydell_finance

Preliminary data for 2024 indicates a relatively stable current account surplus (CA) for the full year but reveals a negative trend in the second half.

Current Account Surplus Overview

The current account surplus for 2024 stood at $53.8 billion, an increase from $50.1 billion in 2023. However, this figure remains significantly lower than the historical averages:

  • $65 billion during the sanctions-adjusted period before the geopolitical crisis (2014–2021)
  • $75 billion for 2017–2021.

Key Considerations

  1. Export Data Limitations: Export flows are recorded in the balance of payments regardless of final payment. Since 2022, a significant portion of Russian exports has accumulated as accounts receivable without direct payment.
  2. Capital Constraints: Intensified secondary sanctions have reduced the repatriation of export proceeds into the Russian financial system, limiting the actual surplus available for allocation.
  3. Paper Gains: The current account surplus figures largely represent “paper” performance, lacking mechanisms to measure accessible resources.

Goods Exports

  • 2024: $417.2 billion
  • 2023: $424.5 billion
  • 2021: $494 billion
  • Peak: $527 billion (2012)

Services Exports

  • 2024: $42.3 billion
  • 2023: $41.2 billion
  • 2021: $56 billion
  • Peak: $65 billion (2018)

Combined goods and services exports totaled $460 billion in 2024, a decline from:

  • $466 billion in 2023
  • $550 billion in 2021
  • Historical high of $590 billion in 2012–2013

Goods and Services Imports

  • 2024: $375 billion
  • 2023: $379 billion
  • 2021: $380 billion

Import volumes have remained stable despite sanctions, staying below the 2012–2013 peak of $445–470 billion.

Key Observations

Sanctions have disproportionately affected exports while leaving imports relatively unaffected.

Current Account Deterioration

The current account surplus consistently narrowed throughout 2024:

  • Q1 2024: $24 billion
  • Q2 2024: $17.3 billion
  • Q3 2024: $7.8 billion
  • Q4 2024: $4.8 billion

In December 2024, the Central Bank reported a CA deficit of $1.3 billion, driven by a sharp drop in exports.

Export Trends

Export performance was stable during the first nine months of 2024 but declined significantly in the final months:

  • November 2024: -5.3% year-on-year (y/y)
  • December 2024: -19% y/y

This decline is primarily attributed to goods, while services exports remained stable.

Import Trends

Imports showed resilience with upward momentum:

  • H1 2024: $174.2 billion (-7.5% y/y) vs. $188.5 billion in H1 2023
  • H2 2024: $200.8 billion (+5.2% y/y) vs. $190.9 billion in H2 2023
  • Q4 2024: Imports rose 4.8% y/y but fell slightly in December (-6.5% y/y)

Possible Drivers

The worsening export data likely reflects the impact of stricter sanctions introduced in November 2024, as there were no comparable adverse shifts in external market conditions.

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