Ukraine is ready to resume natural gas transit through its territory for Eastern European nations—but only if the fuel originates from Azerbaijan. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced this during a briefing in Kyiv on Friday, following his meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Shift to Azeri Gas
Zelenskiy highlighted that Azerbaijan produces approximately 40 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually, with the capacity to export over 25 bcm. Ukraine plans to completely halt Russian gas transit starting January 1, 2025, a decision the president described as “morally and legally justified.” He further emphasized that Ukraine would only assist Slovakia and other nations if Russian gas is excluded from the supply chain.
Proposal for Transnistria
Amid a halt in Russian gas supplies to Transnistria, Zelenskiy proposed supplying Ukrainian coal to the Moldavskaya power plant at reduced prices—or even for free. In exchange, Ukraine would receive surplus electricity generated by the plant and deploy Ukrainian specialists to enhance its output.
“They need 200–220 megawatts for local consumption, while the plant can generate up to 2 gigawatts—ten times what is required,” Zelenskiy said.
He also assured that the arrangement would be “fair and transparent” if Transnistrian authorities genuinely prioritize the welfare of local residents. Zelenskiy dismissed technical concerns about using Ukrainian coal at the plant, noting that Ukrainian coal is already in use there, albeit originally seized from the Donbas region following Russian occupation.
Azeri Exports and Failed Negotiations
Official data shows Azerbaijan increased its gas exports by 5.8% in 2024, reaching 25.2 bcm, including 12.9 bcm directed to Europe. Earlier, discussions reportedly took place between Moscow and Kyiv regarding a transit arrangement using Azerbaijan as an intermediary for Russian gas shipments to Europe. However, the talks failed.
Another proposal, initially discussed by Aliyev and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, involved sending Azeri gas to Germany and Austria through Russia and Ukraine. Under this plan, Gazprom would supply additional gas to Azerbaijan for re-export to Europe. Zelenskiy rejected the idea, effectively blocking the deal. Critics in Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria have accused Zelenskiy of prioritizing Turkey’s interests at their expense.
Turkey’s Expanding Role
With Ukraine rejecting the Russian-Azeri transit arrangement, the TurkStream pipeline remains Russia’s only major export route to Europe. Analysts argue that this bolsters Turkey’s leverage in Europe’s energy market, granting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan increased influence over both Moscow and European capitals.
Hungary’s Position
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban confirmed ongoing negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to maintain gas transit flows. One of the proposed options involves transferring gas ownership to Hungary at the Russian-Ukrainian border.
As Turkey’s role in energy transit grows and Ukraine maintains its hardline stance against Russian gas, Europe’s energy supply increasingly depends on southern routes. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s willingness to facilitate Azeri gas transit may help prevent shortages for its Eastern European neighbors.
