Official data points to progress
In March 2026, Russia’s state statistics service, Rosstat, reported that the country’s poverty rate had fallen to a historic low of 6.7%, or 9.8 million people. Alternative estimates and sociological survey data, however, point to a substantial gap between the official figures and conditions on the ground.
In recent years, Rosstat has repeatedly reported declining poverty, linking the trend to rising wages, larger social transfers and generous payments to military personnel. In particular, volunteers signing contracts to take part in combat operations receive payments worth roughly 10 to 15 times the subsistence minimum, depending on the region. Given that the military contract system has expanded to cover about 1 million people over the past three years, this factor alone may indeed have reduced the poverty rate by 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points.
Civilian economy remains under pressure
At the same time, economic momentum across most civilian sectors remains weak. Wage growth has slowed, while inflation, according to expert estimates, continues to erode households’ real incomes. That raises questions about how sustainable the reported decline in poverty really is.
According to sociological services such as HSE University, Romir and FOM, the share of Russians who describe themselves as struggling — saying they have enough money only for food, or not even enough for that — stands at between 17% and 25%. That figure has remained broadly stable and shows no meaningful improvement.
A further pressure point is household debt. By the end of 2025, around 50 million people in Russia had outstanding debt obligations.
Regional incentives may be shaping the numbers
Sources close to regional administrations say reducing poverty is a key performance indicator for governors and is built into the system used to assess their effectiveness. According to those sources, this creates incentives for extensive bureaucratic efforts in reporting aimed at demonstrating positive momentum.
Experts also point to methodological differences. Rosstat measures poverty using an absolute benchmark tied to the subsistence minimum. Sociologists, by contrast, capture subjective perceptions — whether people feel they do not have enough money. In a broader environment of declining living standards, that perception can itself become distorted: people compare their position with those around them and may be less likely to call themselves poor even when they are under financial strain.
A changing methodology complicates comparisons
Since 2021, Russia has changed the way it calculates the subsistence minimum. It is now defined not through a consumer basket but through median income. In addition, the country uses the concept of a “poverty threshold,” the level of which is set by the federal budget law. Critics argue that this gives officials greater flexibility to adjust the benchmark.
Using sociological criteria instead, as much as 50% to 60% of the population could be classified as financially struggling, including people who cannot afford major purchases or a vacation.
Poverty may be significantly higher than reported
Regional interlocutors estimate the real poverty rate at between 14% and 16% in some areas and as high as 20% to 30% in others, depending on the territory. They say these population groups also carry the greatest protest potential.
Under the current economic backdrop, experts say there are no structural drivers capable of delivering a sustained decline in poverty. On the contrary, if present trends persist, poverty may continue to rise — regardless of what the official statistics show.
