As Russia’s battlefield advantage in Ukraine shows signs of erosion, U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be retreating instead of increasing pressure on the Kremlin — a move that, according to top American and European officials as well as military experts, could prove to be a missed opportunity.
Recent U.S. intelligence assessments warn that the Russian military may face critical shortages of manpower and equipment by 2025. Nonetheless, Trump — instead of pushing for harsher sanctions against Moscow — is touting a two-hour phone conversation with Vladimir Putin during which he discussed potential new trade agreements with Russia.
Even more strikingly, the president, once known for his pledges of “strong leadership,” has now mused about stepping aside entirely and letting Europeans — or even the new Pope — lead peace negotiations. His administration has neither initiated new arms shipments to Ukraine nor requested additional funding from Congress.
A Window of Opportunity to Pressure Moscow
Ironically, more than a dozen officials and analysts say that now may be the most favorable moment since the war began to pressure the Kremlin into serious negotiations. But no such effort appears to be underway.
A recent Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, presented to Congress by Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, warned: “Absent a negotiated settlement or robust Western assistance, the war probably will continue to slowly trend in Russia’s favor through 2025.” However, it noted that Russian advances “are slowing and continue to come at the expense of high personnel and equipment losses.”
Since the February 2022 invasion, Russia has lost “at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters, and over 10 naval vessels,” the DIA said. Over the past year, Moscow has gained only 0.6% of additional Ukrainian territory — at the cost of roughly 1,500 casualties per day, according to current and former Western officials.
“Russia is still very gradually taking bits of territory, but at an unsustainably high cost,” said Richard Barrons, former head of the UK’s Joint Forces Command. Some officials estimate Russia’s total casualties exceed one million.
Drone Wars and a Frozen Front
On the ground, neither side has made significant progress. While Europe scrambles to boost arms deliveries and Ukraine increases domestic weapons production, the conflict has largely evolved into a war of long-range strikes and drones.
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia launched 250 attack drones and 14 ballistic missiles in a single night on Friday. In response, Russian officials claimed to have intercepted more than 700 Ukrainian drones over their territory in the past 72 hours — nearly 100 near Moscow alone.
“Each such strike makes it more obvious to the world that it is Moscow prolonging this war,” Zelensky said. “Much more pressure must be applied on Russia for any real diplomacy to begin. Only additional sanctions targeting key sectors of the Russian economy will force Moscow to stop the attacks.”
Washington’s Apathy on Display
After his call with Putin, Trump made no public mention of sanctions or aid to Ukraine. In private discussions with European leaders, he reportedly indicated that Putin does not seem inclined to stop a war he believes he is winning.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended Trump’s inaction during Senate testimony, saying Kyiv is “still receiving armaments and shipments from us and our allies,” although no new funding or drawdowns have been requested. He noted that the European Union is preparing new sanctions, while the U.S. is seeking to secure scarce Patriot missile systems from NATO partners.
Dismissing suggestions that Trump is being manipulated by Putin, Rubio insisted that “all Biden-era sanctions remain in place.” He added, “The president believes that if you start threatening sanctions now, the Russians will stop talking. And there is value in keeping them at the table.”
Putin has thus far ignored Trump’s call for a 30-day ceasefire, instead sending a low-level delegation to Istanbul, where Senator Rubio represented the U.S. side. In Congress, bipartisan legislation led by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal — and co-sponsored by 81 others — threatens new primary and secondary sanctions if Russia refuses to engage in good-faith negotiations.
Among other measures, the bill would impose a 500% tariff on imports from nations (including China) that continue to purchase Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other commodities. “If Russia presents the same old terms,” said Graham, “it can expect decisive action from the U.S. Senate.”
The Kremlin’s Stance: History and Illusions
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared that any peace deal must address the “root causes” of the war — referring to Moscow’s longstanding claim that Ukraine is a historically Russian land ruled by a corrupt, illegitimate, Nazi regime. Lavrov insisted that only a “legitimate,” newly elected Ukrainian government could sign such a deal.
“Putin believes time is on his side, and that Ukraine is bleeding faster than Russia,” said a senior European official. But Western analysts caution that the Kremlin’s confidence is likely based on distorted reports from subordinates.
The Limits of Russian Military Power
Though Russia has managed to recruit record numbers of new soldiers in 2024 — many motivated by financial rewards and promises of a quick end to the war — the front lines remain largely static.
Ukraine’s dense 10-mile defensive belt, filled with mines and trenches, coupled with the use of short-range drones to intercept advances, has brought Moscow’s offensive efforts to a near standstill.
Additionally, according to a Ukrainian intelligence official, Russia has been forced to redirect resources to retake slivers of its own territory in the Kursk region, further slowing its progress. Despite a 3-to-1 numerical advantage in troops — and possibly even more in terms of weaponry — Russia has been unable to advance meaningfully.
Its once-massive stockpile of around 13,000 Soviet-era tanks is nearly exhausted. Russia produces approximately 200 new tanks per year, but relies heavily on restoring outdated models. Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute warned, “The Russians can keep fighting, but their forces are becoming increasingly de-mechanized. That puts a timeline on how long they can maintain their current approach.”
If no ceasefire is achieved, Moscow is expected to use its remaining advantage this summer to attempt one final major offensive. But that window may be closing.
“Russia is culminating in its ability to conduct an offensive,” Barrons said. “It’s very unlikely they still have the equipment, manpower, or logistics to break through Ukraine’s lines — let alone exploit such a breakthrough.”
Even if Russia manages to gain more territory, it likely won’t be able to fulfill its strategic goal of fully occupying the four illegally annexed regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — according to Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
“There’s a big difference between pushing Ukrainian forces back by 5 to 10 kilometers at great cost and having the concentrated manpower and armored support to truly break through and hold that ground,” she said. “That kind of operation still requires massive resources, and we’re not seeing that level of preparation.”
During Putin’s visit to the retaken Kursk region — his first since it was recovered from Ukrainian forces — a local official suggested invading neighboring Sumy. Putin joked that the governor “always wants more.” But Western officials say the Kremlin’s confidence may stem more from wishful thinking than reality.
“They’re overestimating Russia’s current success,” said a senior European source.
A Strategic Moment at Risk
As Jack Watling pointed out, “If Ukraine can prevent Russia from reaching the Donetsk border by Christmas, and if Kyiv’s international partners keep degrading the Russian economy, Moscow will face tough choices about how much more it’s willing to pay to continue the war.”
At a moment when Russia’s arsenal is shrinking and its offensives are stalling, the time to apply pressure on the Kremlin may be now. But instead of seizing the opportunity, Trump appears to be stepping back.
This article was prepared based on materials published by The Washington Post. The author does not claim authorship of the original text but presents their interpretation of the content for informational purposes.
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