In May 2025, a significant shift occurred in European politics — one that could shape the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war and redefine the continent’s collective security. The leaders of France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Poland — Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, Keir Starmer, and Donald Tusk — have formed an informal alliance to demonstrate Europe’s determination to support Ukraine, regardless of Washington’s shifting stance.
As Le Monde columnist Philippe Ricard notes, their joint visit to Kyiv on May 10 did not produce tangible results, but it marked a powerful political gesture: Europe is stepping up to influence the course of a war that directly impacts its future.
An Attempted Ultimatum and Putin’s Silence
In Kyiv, the four leaders attempted what was essentially a political ultimatum to Vladimir Putin, threatening a new round of sweeping sanctions unless the Russian president accepted the ceasefire proposed over two months earlier by President Donald Trump. Unsurprisingly, Putin dismissed the warning and later snubbed a potential meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky in Turkey — a summit that had been positioned as a symbolic challenge.
While the initiative didn’t lead to immediate results, the act of unity between the four European leaders signaled a major development: a new frontline of political engagement in support of Ukraine, independent of Washington’s direction. As Le Monde emphasizes, these leaders believe all signs indicate that Putin has no intention of halting what he sees as “his” war, now more than three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Beyond the Franco-German Axis
This emerging alliance — often called the “Group of Four” — aims to reshape European strategic thinking. It transcends the long-standing Franco-German axis, which has often shown hesitancy toward Moscow. The inclusion of Poland, a rising military power and key frontline state, brings the Eastern and Western parts of Europe into closer alignment. According to Le Monde, this dynamic enables the coalition to confront Russia and its ally Belarus from a position of greater unity.
The format also signals a reset in UK-EU relations. After the turmoil of Brexit, London’s involvement in this coalition revives elements of the “special relationship” with Washington and tightens transatlantic cooperation.
The Key Challenge: Pressuring Trump
Yet the central goal of the Group of Four is not to pressure Putin, but to influence Donald Trump. Since returning to the White House, Trump has remained skeptical of long-term support for Ukraine. His administration has made multiple concessions to the Kremlin without securing any meaningful de-escalation. Meanwhile, Russian missiles and drones continue to strike Ukrainian cities, targeting both civilians and infrastructure.
The four European leaders have held several joint phone calls with Trump in recent weeks — none with Putin, although Macron has signaled he’s open to dialogue should the Russian leader express willingness. For now, the European leaders are focused on convincing Trump that abandoning Ukraine would be a catastrophic mistake — one with long-term consequences for both transatlantic relations and Europe’s own security.
NATO, G7 and a Crucial Diplomatic Sprint
The coming weeks are critical. Two major international summits loom: the NATO summit in The Hague (June 24–25), and the G7 meeting in Canada. Both will be firsts in the new geopolitical configuration: the first major gatherings with Trump back in office, and the first for new leaders like Starmer and Merz.
As Le Monde notes, Trump’s demand for NATO members to spend 5% of their GDP on defense will likely be discussed — but the fate of Ukraine will top the agenda. Zelensky may attend the NATO summit, though Ukraine remains officially outside the alliance. The European Union will also hold a leaders’ summit shortly after, meaning the coming month could prove decisive for Ukraine’s future.
If Trump refuses to commit to further support, the burden will shift squarely to Europe. And even if Trump continues backchannel talks with Putin, the Group of Four aims to push back against any deal that compromises European or Ukrainian security. According to Le Monde, they reject the idea of a “peace at any price” settlement — especially one that results from US-Russia negotiations without European input.
The End of U.S. Aid?
The aid package for Ukraine signed under President Joe Biden is nearly exhausted. Trump’s administration shows no sign of preparing a follow-up package. Should U.S. support dry up, the war is likely to intensify, especially with Russia seizing the initiative on the ground. In that case, Europe would face the immense challenge of ramping up both financial and military support for Ukraine — alone.
Can Europe Counter the Trump–Putin Axis?
Whether the European Group of Four can truly counterbalance a de facto Trump–Putin axis remains uncertain. Each of the leaders faces domestic instability and political fragility:
- Emmanuel Macron is nearing the end of his presidential term and has been without a parliamentary majority since his failed bid to dissolve the National Assembly nearly a year ago.
- Keir Starmer, though newly elected, faces rising far-right opposition that could overtake the Conservatives.
- Donald Tusk must contend with the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which still controls the presidency until at least June 1, with a tight presidential runoff expected.
- Friedrich Merz, Germany’s new chancellor, is dealing with a fragile coalition government after his initial election was almost derailed in the Bundestag.
Amid this uncertainty, Trump recently described Putin as “completely insane” due to his continued attacks on civilians. Whether that remark marks a genuine shift or a fleeting outburst remains unclear. It may suggest a new opening for Ukraine — or it could be a prelude to a permanent U.S. withdrawal from the military and diplomatic theater of Eastern Europe.
Europe at a Crossroads
With Washington’s support in question and Russian aggression escalating, Europe finds itself at a historic crossroads. Either it steps fully into a leadership role, or it risks ceding the future of the continent to forces beyond its control. As Le Monde stresses, the Group of Four is united in its belief that surrendering to a compromised peace deal — one that leaves Ukraine exposed and rewards Russian aggression — is not an option.
The stakes could not be higher. The coming weeks may define not just the outcome of the war in Ukraine, but the balance of power for an entire generation.
This article was prepared based on materials published by Le Monde. The author does not claim authorship of the original text but presents their interpretation of the content for informational purposes.
The original article can be found at the following link: Le Monde.
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