Russia is experiencing profound changes within its political elite, defined by the shifting fortunes of influential figures in business and politics. Over the past year, prominent oligarchs and officials have seen their influence wane as power struggles and state interventions reshape the nation’s elite landscape.
Oligarchs Under Pressure
Alisher Usmanov, once a dominant figure in Russian business, has begun divesting his assets, signaling a retreat from his former prominence. Similarly, Roman Abramovich is offloading his Russian holdings, while Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven are finalizing a deal to sell Beeline to state-controlled Rostelecom. The future of Alfa-Bank is also under speculation, with a potential transfer to VTB.
VTB, led by Andrey Kostin, has expanded its influence by acquiring shipbuilding assets and taking control of the publishing house Kommersant. Meanwhile, Vladimir Yevtushenkov has been fighting to retain control over MTS and its associated ventures, despite persistent challenges to unseat him.
Gennady Timchenko, a long-time Kremlin ally, has faced turbulence, exacerbated by the fallout from Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu’s resignation. Concurrently, Alexey Mordashov, head of Severstal, is entangled in a public feud with Vologda Governor Oleg Kuvshinnikov. Accusations of tax optimization, withdrawing businesses from the region, and political overreach have put Mordashov’s steel empire at risk. Formerly close to Timchenko and the Kovalchuk brothers, Mordashov’s fraying alliances leave his future uncertain.
Regional Power Plays
Moscow Region Governor Andrey Vorobyov and his family’s development company, Samolet, face mounting pressure, with reports of the company nearing bankruptcy. Vorobyov’s resignation appears increasingly imminent.
In Samara, Governor Dmitry Azarov, a Rostec-backed appointee, finds himself in conflict with Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard, and Zolotov’s ally, lawmaker Alexander Khinshtein. Following public disputes, Azarov’s administration is now under criminal investigation, leaving his political future in jeopardy. This development marks a rare public defeat for Rostec and its leader Sergey Chemezov, while highlighting Zolotov’s growing influence.
Zolotov’s alliance with the Kovalchuks and Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin has strengthened his position. The National Guard has evolved into a powerful paramilitary force with its own intelligence apparatus. Zolotov also played a key role in blocking Dagestan Governor Sergey Melikov’s return to the National Guard, instead aligning Melikov with Senator Suleyman Kerimov, who opposes Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.
The Chechen Factor
Facing health challenges, Ramzan Kadyrov spent much of 2024 consolidating his clan’s grip on power in anticipation of potential instability. While his influence at the federal level has waned, Kadyrov’s direct appeals to President Vladimir Putin underscore his reliance on the Kremlin. Despite reduced prominence, Kadyrov’s network remains integral to Moscow’s political strategies, with its fortunes tightly linked to the regime’s broader stability.
A Return to Soviet Nostalgia
Domestically, the Kremlin has intensified efforts to revive Soviet-style values, promoting traditionalism in response to conservative sentiments at home and abroad. This has been accompanied by heightened repression, targeting LGBTQ communities, subcultures, and cultural expression, aiming to enforce conformity among both elites and the urban middle class.
The regime’s slogan—“The past is the present”—reflects its broader strategy of streamlining societal processes while relying on punitive institutions for enforcement. Patriotism, nostalgia, and cultural kitsch dominate public discourse, projecting an illusion of stability.
However, even President Putin has acknowledged the risks of stagnation, commenting on the paradox of Russian life: when calm prevails, “we are bored and crave excitement,” but when “things heat up, we are terrified.”
A Nation in Limbo
As Russia navigates its current state of “frozen” societal dynamics, the interplay between boredom and fear defines the public mood. This era of uncertainty has been described by some observers as a time of “wild men and skullcaps,” a vivid metaphor for a nation caught between retrograde visions and an unpredictable future.
