As the war in Ukraine drags on and the frontlines remain largely stagnant, Istanbul has once again emerged as a potential venue for direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. What’s surprising is that the initiative did not come from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nonetheless, Erdoğan quickly seized the unexpected diplomatic opportunity.
“I would like to ask President Erdoğan to create the opportunity for talks in Turkey,” Putin said, proposing the upcoming Thursday as the date for the meeting. According to Turkish media, Erdoğan was caught off guard by the proposal—but he wasted no time in taking advantage of the moment. “A new opportunity has arisen. We believe it will not go to waste this time,” Erdoğan declared.
What followed were intense phone calls—with French President Emmanuel Macron, with Putin, and with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. On Tuesday, Erdoğan also hosted NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Ankara.
Peace or performance? The format remains unclear
So far, the format of potential talks is still unknown. President Zelensky publicly stated that he would be “waiting for Putin in Turkey on Thursday, in person.” However, he and the leaders of Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Poland set a condition for the meeting: a 30-day ceasefire starting Monday. Putin allowed the deadline to pass.
As reported by NZZ, the Kremlin appears to be stalling, confident in its military advantage and aiming to seize more Ukrainian territory before any freeze in the conflict is agreed upon.
As a result, Thursday’s meeting is more likely to involve low-level representatives from both sides rather than the heads of state. European capitals are quietly discussing the possibility of a phased ceasefire: first at sea and in the air, then on the ground.
It remains unclear whether Turkey will merely host the talks or actively mediate them.
Erdoğan’s balancing act
For Erdoğan, these negotiations offer a prime opportunity to bolster both his domestic standing and his international image. The Turkish state news agency Anadolu is already fantasizing about Istanbul becoming “the new Geneva.”
Erdoğan is clearly trying to strengthen his reputation as a regional power broker—an ambition he has nurtured for years. He aims to position Turkey as a central player in global affairs, one that cannot be ignored.
At home, the timing is also convenient. Erdoğan has recently faced large-scale protests over the imprisonment of his main political rival. Taking center stage in global diplomacy may shift focus away from domestic unrest.
From a geopolitical perspective, successful talks could improve Ankara’s relationship with Moscow—without risking its ties to the West. Since the beginning of the war, Erdoğan has walked a careful line: pro-Ukraine, but not anti-Russia. He helped broker the (now-suspended) grain deal and has collaborated with Putin on plans for a gas hub in Turkey. Meanwhile, Ankara has supplied arms to Kyiv but refused to join Western sanctions against Moscow.
This balancing act has caused tension with NATO allies—particularly when Turkey delayed Sweden and Finland’s accession to the alliance for months. But more recently, Ankara has signaled a return toward the West. One example is Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent participation in a European Union foreign ministers’ meeting in Warsaw. Turkey is eager to help shape Europe’s new security architecture, especially amid growing doubts about the reliability of the U.S.
Moscow eyes Turkey’s Westward tilt with concern
Russia views Turkey’s pivot with unease. As Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, director of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund, notes: “Historically, Russia and Turkey cooperate when both feel excluded by the West. But once one of them—usually Turkey—reconnects with the West, they go their separate ways.” Some signs of this divergence are already beginning to appear.
Yet Putin’s choice of Istanbul as the venue was deliberate. He passed over other options—such as Saudi Arabia—due to Istanbul’s symbolic value. In 2022, the city hosted negotiations in which Ukraine was expected to abandon its NATO ambitions in exchange for security guarantees.
Those talks ultimately failed, in part because Russia wanted not just to be a guarantor but to gain veto power over any involvement by other states, including the U.S. and the U.K. That would have made Ukraine completely dependent on the Kremlin’s will.
Now, Russia seeks to revive that dialogue. According to Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov, any new talks must “take into account both the outcomes of the previous negotiations and the developments on the battlefield.” For Moscow, Istanbul represents a historically advantageous starting point.
Trump adds a new twist
Adding further intrigue is the potential involvement of Donald Trump. Rumors suggest he considered flying to Istanbul himself to participate in the negotiations. On Tuesday, it was announced that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would attend in his place.
Back in February, Americans and Russians quietly held talks in Riyadh about European security—without involving Ukrainians or European states. Shortly afterward, Erdoğan met with Zelensky. A widely shared photo from Ankara showed Erdoğan holding an umbrella over his Ukrainian guest. It was a symbolic gesture—but one that resonated globally.
Erdoğan understands the power of such imagery. But whether he can go beyond symbolic diplomacy and act as a genuine peace broker remains to be seen.
This article was prepared based on materials published by Neue Zürcher Zeitung. The author does not claim authorship of the original text but presents their interpretation of the content for informational purposes.
The original article can be found at the following link: Neue Zürcher Zeitung.
All rights to the original text belong to Neue Zürcher Zeitung.
