The Catholic Church stands at the threshold of a historic turning point — a new conclave that, according to La Stampa, may become the most global and least Eurocentric in modern history. In the event of Pope Francis’s passing or resignation, this conclave will determine the future direction of the Church for decades to come. For the first time, the majority of voting cardinals will not come from Europe but from what Francis himself has called the “peripheries” — Latin America, Asia, and Africa. This is the result of Pope Francis’s reshaping of the College of Cardinals, where many of the new electors are his appointees from across the globe.
The Candidates: Between Continuity and Change
Among the top contenders to succeed Francis are individuals with profoundly different profiles — culturally, geographically, and ideologically. The frontrunner is widely seen as Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Vatican Secretary of State since 2013. A seasoned diplomat, Parolin is viewed as a candidate of continuity — someone who can maintain the Church’s current pastoral openness while balancing its many internal sensibilities. He is often described as a steady hand and a consensus-builder.
Another strong candidate is Matteo Maria Zuppi, Archbishop of Bologna and President of the Italian Bishops’ Conference. Known for his deep social engagement and long-standing ties with the Community of Sant’Egidio, Zuppi represents a Church that is close to the poor, committed to dialogue, and open to innovation. His style is pragmatic, pastoral, and deeply human-centered.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem and a Franciscan with direct experience in the Holy Land, is also on the radar. His candidacy might be strengthened by the Church’s growing need to build bridges between East and West, as well as his strong background in interreligious dialogue.
From Asia, Luis Antonio Tagle, Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, has long been seen as a “Francis-like” figure. With a warm, charismatic presence and a deep connection to the global South, Tagle could represent a youthful, missionary Church for a new era.
Europe is not out of the game, however. Jean-Marc Aveline, Archbishop of Marseille, is a respected voice in interreligious dialogue, especially with Islam. He embodies a vision of Europe that remains actively engaged with the Mediterranean’s cultural and migratory challenges — a modern Church that listens and leads.
Other Figures to Watch
Several other names are circulating within Church circles — each representing different visions for the Church’s future.
- José Tolentino de Mendonça (Portugal), Prefect of the Dicastery for Culture and Education, is a poet and theologian, considered a leading intellectual voice within the Vatican. His open and dialogical vision of faith resonates with those seeking a bridge between tradition and modernity.
- Mario Grech (Malta), General Secretary of the Synod of Bishops, has played a key role in implementing Francis’s synodal reforms. He is seen as a champion of a more collegial, listening Church.
- Péter Erdő (Hungary), a canon lawyer and archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, represents the more conservative theological current and has played prominent roles in past synods.
- Robert Sarah (Guinea), former Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship, is perhaps the most visible conservative cardinal. A papacy under Sarah would signal a strong traditionalist shift.
- Anders Arborelius (Sweden), the first Swedish cardinal and a Carmelite, is respected for his balance between doctrine and openness in secular northern Europe.
- Charles Bo (Myanmar), Archbishop of Yangon, is a missionary voice from a geopolitically fragile region, with a strong stance on human rights.
- Malcolm Ranjith (Sri Lanka), former Secretary of the Congregation for Divine Worship, is close to Benedict XVI and aligned with more traditionalist views.
- Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of the Congo), a Franciscan and Archbishop of Kinshasa, is active in the social and political life of his country — a powerful African voice.
- Willem Jacobus Eijk (Netherlands), Archbishop of Utrecht, is one of the most conservative cardinals in Europe.
The “Kingmakers” of the Conclave
As La Stampa highlights, not all influence lies with the papabile (those likely to be elected). So-called grandi elettori — powerful cardinals who might not be contenders themselves — will play a decisive role in building coalitions and tipping the balance.
Among the conservatives, key figures include:
- Timothy Dolan (USA), Archbishop of New York,
- Gerhard Ludwig Müller (Germany), former head of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith,
- Kurt Koch (Switzerland), Prefect for Christian Unity,
- Marc Ouellet (Canada), former Prefect for Bishops.
On the progressive side, key influencers include:
- Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg), General Rapporteur of the Synod,
- Michael Czerny (Canada), head of the Dicastery for Integral Human Development.
Both are closely aligned with Francis’s pastoral and synodal vision.
The Process: Secrecy, Smoke, and Sacred Ritual
The conclave will be held under the strictest secrecy inside the Sistine Chapel. Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote, and all swear an oath of confidentiality. The election is conducted through secret ballots, with a two-thirds majority required to elect the new Pope.
After each round of voting, the ballots are burned. Black smoke indicates no decision has been reached. White smoke means a Pope has been chosen — and the world hears the age-old declaration from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica: Habemus Papam.
This upcoming conclave has the potential to redefine the Catholic Church’s identity. It is no longer just about Rome or Europe, but about Manila, Kinshasa, Bogotá, and beyond. Whether the cardinals choose a symbol of continuity or a figure of dramatic change, the decision will shape a Church at a crossroads — between tradition and reform, between center and periphery, between past and future. As La Stampa notes, it is the most planetary conclave in Church history — and perhaps the most consequential.
This article was prepared based on materials published by La Stampa. The author does not claim authorship of the original text but presents their interpretation of the content for informational purposes.
The original article can be found at the following link: La Stampa.
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