The resignation of Sergey Shoigu as Minister of Defense, accompanied by the purge of his associated political clan, emerged as the most significant development in 2024.
Decline of Shoigu’s Influence
Shoigu’s weakening coincided with the diminishing influence of the Yeltsin family and systemic liberals, exemplified by notable figures like Anatoly Chubais and Vladimir Mau relocating to Israel. A series of criminal cases targeting Shoigu’s deputies, key ministry officials, and district commanders signaled a shift towards reducing the General Staff’s autonomy, which had expanded since the inception of the Special Military Operation (SMO).
There is a considerable likelihood that Shoigu may leave the Security Council during the year, though this would likely be a personal decision. His primary focus appears to be maintaining a position within the Kremlin’s inner circle. Shoigu’s adversaries—notably Sergey Chemezov, Viktor Zolotov, and Alexander Bortnikov—show little interest in expending resources to challenge a diminished figure. Nikolai Patrushev’s continued dominance in the Security Council has also limited Shoigu’s administrative maneuverability. Consequently, the erosion of Shoigu’s influence is expected to persist, especially affecting the Vorobyov and Tsalikov families.
Multivector Decision-Making at the Ministry of Defense
The appointments of Andrey Belousov, Tatyana Tsivileva, and Pyotr Fradkov to the Ministry of Defense have introduced a multivector dynamic, increasing tensions between civilian and military factions. This restructuring has effectively neutralized any potential threat of a military coup within the regime.
In the spring of 2024, Minister Belousov is anticipated to unveil a program for reorganizing the military structure and optimizing defense expenditures. However, it remains doubtful that such a program will come to fruition. Instead, internal struggles over the role of Chief of the General Staff are likely to dominate the ministry’s agenda.
Under Shoigu’s leadership, the Ministry of Defense expanded staffing, created additional general positions, and increased budgets. Military experts are skeptical about any reductions in personnel or restructuring of the General Staff, even under the guise of improving efficiency.
Territorial Developments in the SMO
The third year of the SMO yielded mixed results. In 2024, the Russian army gained control over 3,300 square kilometers, representing 0.5% of Ukraine’s total territory. Over three years, Russia has seized control of 112,000 square kilometers—or 18.5% of Ukraine’s territory.
The “Kursk Story”
Ukraine’s military operations extended into Russian territory, with the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) advancing into the Kursk region. By September, the UAF controlled 908 square kilometers of Russian territory, which had decreased to 494 square kilometers by December. This incursion displaced approximately 150,000 residents, creating a wave of refugees.
Questions remain unanswered regarding the failures of military intelligence, the border guard service, and the National Guard in anticipating and countering the offensive. Reports suggest that 10,000 to 12,000 North Korean military personnel are participating in combat operations on Russia’s side. However, these claims lack official confirmation, aside from Ukrainian sources, and no substantial evidence of North Korean involvement in the Kursk region has emerged beyond alleged Ukrainian deepfakes.
Domestic Reactions and Implications
The Russian government has officially classified the “Kursk story” as a counter-terrorist operation. Military structures are overseeing the response, though civilian governance and elections continue in affected regions. Official media have downplayed the events, yet sociological data indicates a surge in patriotic sentiment, with increased public support for the SMO and a temporary rise in contract signings for military participation.
The “Kursk story” has acted as a catalyst for rejecting peace negotiations and sustaining hostilities. Ukraine’s January counteroffensive in the Kursk direction underscores the significance of its presence on Russian territory as a military-diplomatic factor.
Looking Ahead
As 2024 unfolds, the interplay of political dynamics within the Ministry of Defense and developments on the frontlines will shape the trajectory of the SMO. The resignation of Shoigu and the increasing multivector decision-making within the ministry mark a pivotal moment in Russia’s ongoing military and political landscape.
