The European Union is tired of asking nicely. Now it’s ready to act decisively — even against its own member states. A new strategic plan presented by the European Commission on Tuesday could fully halt Russian gas supplies to Europe by 2027 and require energy companies to terminate contracts with the Kremlin. This marks the beginning of an inevitable confrontation with pro-Russian EU countries — especially Hungary and Slovakia.
According to Politico, Brussels’ goal is to deprive Russia of energy revenues that fund the war in Ukraine. The EU is no longer willing to accommodate the interests of member states that continue purchasing Russian gas and oil. As Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen explained, unlike sanctions, the new initiative does not require unanimous approval: “If someone is not ready to move forward — that’s also OK. In the EU, sometimes decisions are made by majority,” he stated during a speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
Hungary and Slovakia: The Energy Outcasts of the EU
This approach is causing alarm in Budapest and Bratislava. Throughout the war in Ukraine, Hungary and Slovakia have continued to buy Russian energy, blocked sanctions in Brussels, and opposed military aid to Kyiv. As Politico notes, Hungary took advantage of “loopholes” initially granted as temporary exemptions to strike profitable deals. For example, in autumn 2024, Budapest reached an agreement with Kyiv to continue receiving Russian oil via pipeline, despite the ongoing conflict.
Slovakia, for its part, demanded support from the EU after Moscow cut off its gas supply. Now both countries risk losing their privileges.
Experts warn that severing energy ties with Russia could be particularly costly for landlocked Central European nations. Laura Page, an analyst at Kpler, explained: “Hungary and Slovakia have no access to the sea, and switching to seaborne liquefied natural gas will be extremely expensive for them. Moreover, the region suffers from severe pipeline bottlenecks.”
Jonathan Stern, founder of the gas program at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, believes “Hungary and Slovakia will demand compensation if they are forced to seek alternative sources.” That process has already begun: Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico called the plan politically motivated even before it was officially announced and warned it would raise gas prices. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó also reacted sharply on social media platform X, calling the plan “a serious mistake” that “threatens energy security, drives up prices, and violates sovereignty.”
The European Commission insists the transition to alternative sources will be supported financially and technically. Jørgensen emphasized: “We do not ignore the fact that for some countries, this transition will be more difficult. The Commission is ready to use all available tools to mitigate the negative effects.” However, no specific compensation mechanisms have yet been presented.
Business, Politics, and Implementation: Who Will Be Affected by the EU’s Plan
But the issue goes beyond Hungary and Slovakia. The EU’s new plan also requires energy companies to sever contracts with Russian suppliers. Politico cites a statement from French company TotalEnergies, which refused to comment on “political fiction,” but pledged to fulfill its existing long-term contracts unless official sanctions are imposed.
Meanwhile, experts are questioning the practicalities of the initiative. How will the data be collected? Who will monitor compliance? What penalties are envisioned for violations? What should be done with countries that might conceal the true origin of their energy supplies?
Aura Sabadus, a gas market expert at ICIS, raised a critical point: “Can we trust, for example, Bulgaria, if it claims the gas isn’t from Russia?”
Nevertheless, Brussels insists the legal foundations of the plan are solid. An anonymous EU official told Politico: “Believe me, we know exactly what we want, and we know how to do it safely — legally and without economic risks for market participants. It’s trade policy. And like any trade policy, we choose our partners ourselves.”
Some countries, including Lithuania, have already voiced support. Lithuanian Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas called the plan “good news” and expressed confidence in its successful implementation.
However, Martin Vladimirov from the Center for the Study of Democracy warned that countries like Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria could sabotage enforcement by citing national security. “They will present a beautiful plan with targets and milestones and then claim they can’t implement it due to security concerns. This already happened with coal phaseouts and renewable energy projects,” he emphasized.
In the meantime, as Politico concludes, “Russia continues to rake in billions.”
This article was prepared based on materials published by Politico. The author does not claim authorship of the original text but presents their interpretation of the content for informational purposes.
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