Turkey is intensifying its efforts to become a pivotal player in Europe’s energy supply chain. Moving beyond its established partnerships with Azerbaijan and the European Union, Ankara is considering ambitious projects that could transform regional gas flows. One proposal under review is the revival of a long-dormant pipeline project from Qatar through Syria. However, this initiative faces significant hurdles, including the need for a stable security environment in Syria and a resolution to the Kurdish issue—factors that suggest years of planning and negotiation ahead.
Erdoğan’s Vision for a Gas Hub
Central to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s strategy is the aspiration to position Turkey as a major energy hub. The plan involves sourcing gas from multiple suppliers, including Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. Ankara has proposed a new network of pipelines that would span the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, ultimately delivering gas to European markets. Simultaneously, Turkey seeks to strengthen its political and military presence in the South Caucasus, reinforcing its proposed energy corridors with broader regional influence.
Impact on Russia and the South Caucasus
Russia’s traditional dominance in the South Caucasus is being challenged. Analysts point out that Moscow’s historical connections with breakaway regions like Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia could undergo significant shifts. There is speculation about a pro-Russian arrangement that could integrate these territories into Georgia, a concept linked to Kremlin official Dmitry Kozak. Meanwhile, Turkey is forging its own relationships in the region, including with Abkhazia, aiming to bolster its strategic position over energy routes shared by Russia and Georgia.
Shifting Dynamics in European Gas Supply
Turkey’s emerging role as an energy transit hub aligns with evolving gas supply dynamics in Europe. Ukraine has suspended Russian gas transit and is exploring a potential Polish-Ukrainian corridor to transport Scandinavian gas to the European Union. However, most experts view this project as a long-term possibility rather than an immediate solution.
In the interim, Turkey has become the principal route for Russian gas bound for the European Union. With major economies like Germany, Austria, Italy, and France prioritizing affordable energy to fuel economic recovery, Ankara’s role as a reliable transit state is gaining prominence. The appeal of relatively inexpensive natural gas provides Europe with a crucial resource for post-crisis growth.
Strategic Implications
Ankara is leveraging Europe’s need for stable and cost-effective energy solutions to enhance its geopolitical influence. By deepening its partnerships with energy-rich neighbors, Turkey is positioning itself as a central player in reshaping regional energy routes. Observers note that establishing a Turkish-centric gas hub could redefine alliances, drawing European nations closer to Ankara as they seek diversified energy supplies.
A New Energy Map
If Erdoğan’s ambitions materialize, Turkey could emerge as a central node in a new global energy map. This would provide Europe with alternatives to traditional supply routes and enable Ankara to act as a mediator between East and West. In an era where global energy security is increasingly critical, Turkey’s strategic positioning could have far-reaching implications for regional and global alliances.
